The Aurora Probability is your chance of seeing the aurora in the next hour or so, from your location, in dark skies. It is predictive; a short-range forecast, just not a multi-day one — and it moves as the solar wind changes. If the number is high and your sky is dark and clear, go outside. During the day it shows a greyed-out potential number so you can see what tonight could look like.
One-glance rule: High or Very High + dark + clear sky = go look.
The big number is a percentage from 0–100%. It answers one question: if I walked outside right now into a dark, cloud-free sky, what are my odds of seeing aurora?
It's built from live solar wind and magnetic data (measured ~1 million miles upstream of Earth) combined with where you are and whether it's currently dark at your location. Measuring upstream gives the number a built-in head start: it already anticipates the conditions arriving in the next ~30–60 minutes as that wind travels in. Because the solar wind can shift in minutes, this reading is meant for the next little while — the coming hour or so — not for planning three days out.
Two things change how to read it:
The percentage is grouped into five plain-language bands:
| Band | Range | What it means for you |
|---|---|---|
| Very Low | < 15% | Very unlikely to see aurora from your location. |
| Low | 15–34% | Unlikely, but possible if conditions strengthen. Worth a glance. |
| Moderate | 35–59% | Reasonable chance — worth watching if your skies are clear. |
| High | 60–79% | Good chance of visible aurora. Head outside if skies are clear! |
| Very High | 80%+ | Excellent chance. Strong activity expected! |
Below the number you'll see small chips(little labels). They add context the percentage alone can't
The aurora oval sits over the magnetic pole. Depending on how far you are from it, the aurora will appear at a different height in your sky. The horizon chip tells you where to aim your eyes:
| Chip | Roughly | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Overhead likely | very close to the oval | Aurora could appear directly overhead! |
| High on horizon | close | Aurora could extend well above the horizon. |
| Visible on horizon | moderate distance | Aurora should be visible on the horizon if active. |
| Low on horizon | farther | Aurora may appear very low on the horizon — find an unobstructed northern view. |
| Below horizon | far away | The aurora oval is below your visible horizon right now. |
💡 A “Low on horizon” chip is a reminder to get a clear, flat view toward the pole (north in the northern hemisphere, south in the southern) — even faint aurora can be hidden by trees or buildings.
If the readout shows something like “ETA: ~45 min”, that's the travel time for the solar wind we're currently measuring to actually reach Earth. It's a heads-up that the conditions feeding the number are still on their way in.
These optional chips name the dominant driver behind the current activity (which part of the Sun–Earth connection is doing the work). They're context for the curious — you don't need them to make a go/no-go call.
📸 Camera tip: Aurora often shows up on a phone (night mode) or camera before your eyes catch it — the sensor picks up faint colour the dark-adapted eye reads as grey. If the number's up and the sky looks faintly “off” toward the pole, take a long-exposure shot to confirm.
