How to Read the Minute-by-Minute Forecast

TL;DR

This is the power-user view. It takes the solar wind being measured ~1 million miles upstream and lists, minute by minute in your local time, when each parcel will actually hit Earth — along with its density, speed, and magnetic field. The single most useful thing on it: the Bz column turns red whenever Bz is negative. A run of red rows is a timed window when the aurora's main ingredient is switched on. If you see a solid block of red arriving — and speed and Bt look decent — that's when to be outside.

One-glance rule: A stretch of red Bz rows + healthy speed = aurora window incoming at those clock times. 🔴

What you're looking at

Most aurora numbers give you a single “now” value. This table gives you the near-future schedule. Each row is one reading, but timestamped to its Arrival Time — the moment that chunk of solar wind reaches Earth, computed from its measured speed and the live distance to the L1 satellite (faster wind = shorter trip).

The table header shows “Selected TimeZone:” so you know the arrival times are in your clock, and a ↻ Refresh Data button pulls the latest readings. To change the time zone so Aurora Admin displays graphs in your local time you can do so in the Aurora Settings page once you're logged in.

Why the red Bz matters so much

Aurora needs the Sun's magnetic field to point south (a negative Bz) so it can link up with Earth's field and pour energy in. When Bz goes negative, the door opens. So:

• A single red row = a brief opening.
• A long, unbroken block of red rows = a sustained southward field arriving — exactly the setup that produces strong, lasting displays.
• The arrival times on those red rows tell you roughly when the activity should kick in at your location.

This is the “if everything else is decent” part: red Bz is most meaningful when the speed is healthy and Bt (total field) is reasonably strong. Red Bz with dead-slow, weak wind is a weaker signal than red Bz riding a fast, strong stream.

How to use it tonight

1. Scan the Bz column for red. That's your aurora-driver indicator.
2. Note the Arrival Times next to the red rows — that's your window to be set up and dark-adapted.
3. Sanity-check Speed and Bt on those same rows. Red + fast + strong is the gold standard.
4. Cross-reference the Substorm Detector — sustained red Bz is exactly what loads the system toward a substorm onset.
5. Confirm your sky. None of this helps under cloud or a bright moon; check the Map's cloud layer and Moon Info.

Go deeper

Want the why? Open this. How “Arrival Time” is calculated. Each reading's transit time ≈ distance to L1 ÷ solar-wind speed. The plugin uses the live L1 distance (it isn't a fixed number), so a 600 km/s stream arrives noticeably sooner than a 350 km/s one. The table then sorts everything by arrival time and shows only readings that haven't reached Earth yet.

The * (estimated) rows. If all the freshest readings have already arrived, the table fills the next few minutes by extrapolating recent trends, and marks those rows with an asterisk and the note “Values are estimated based on recent trends.” Treat starred rows as a short projection, not a measurement.

Why it's “advanced.” It shows the raw drivers instead of a single tidy percentage. The payoff is timing: the Probability tells you roughly the next hour; this table lets you point at a clock time and say “the southward field lands about then.”

Bz vs Bt. Bz is the direction that opens the door; Bt is the total strength available. You want both see IMF: Bz, By & Bt.